The Timberwolves’ Championship Problem
May 18, 2026
The Timberwolves have won more playoff series in the past three years than the previous 34 combined, but the team is surrounded by uncertainty, frustration, and the familiar “something needs to change” energy that always shows up in Minnesota offseasons. The Wolves are one of the five best teams in the NBA, but the panic comes from the fact that the top two are burgeoning juggernauts in their conference.
With San Antonio and Oklahoma City rising as legitimate long-term problems, the margin for error in Minnesota’s window feels smaller than it should for a team this good. I’ll discuss possible changes below, but no matter what the Wolves do this offseason, they won’t be as good as San Antonio or Oklahoma City next season. The road to a championship for them will take a determined upset or injuries derailing those powerhouses.
Changes are likely coming and the most requested change from fans is trading Julius Randle. The problem is the reasons they want him dealt are the same reasons other teams won’t want to trade for him. The pairing of Randle and Gobert has been clumsy, Randle’s intensity has been unreliable, and he hasn’t consistently elevated Anthony Edwards’ game. But dumping him or trading him for another distressed asset, like Miami’s Tyler Herro, doesn’t make the Wolves better next season.
Despite the obvious flaws in fit, Randle still posted a +232 plus/minus this season while averaging 21 points, 7 rebounds, and 5 assists on efficient shooting splits. Those numbers cratered in the playoffs, which is why rival teams aren’t going to be lining up to trade premium assets for the 31-year-old with two years remaining on his deal. If the Wolves want to trade Randle for an impact player, they’ll almost certainly need to attach young players or their limited draft capital to make it happen. That lack of draft flexibility is what makes both this offseason and the road to contention so complicated. Here is the Wolves’ first-round future over the next six years:
2026 Draft: #28 Pick
2027 Draft: Traded (Gobert Trade)
2028 Draft: Own Pick
2029 Draft: Traded but Top-5 Protected (Gobert Trade)
2030 Draft: Swap with Spurs but Top-1 Protected (Dillingham Trade)
2031 Draft: Traded (Dillingham Trade)
That leaves Minnesota facing three realistic paths this offseason: push all-in for another star, reset the roster around Edwards’ long-term timeline, or try to find incremental upgrades around the edges.
The First Domino: Re-signing Ayo Dosunmu
Teams can exceed the salary cap to retain their own players, and no matter what direction the Wolves take this offseason, re-signing Ayo should be a priority. If Minnesota can keep Dosunmu at $20 million or less annually, they can fill out the rest of the roster with minimum and near-minimum contracts while staying below the second apron. The problem is it only takes one aggressive team to drive that price higher and force the Wolves into a difficult financial decision.
The All-In Move
Giannis Antetokounmpo will turn 32 at the beginning of next season and injuries have significantly hampered him in recent seasons, but he is one of the 20 greatest players of all time and is a two-way force who has led a team to a championship.
IMPORTANT NOTE: If the Timberwolves could pull off a trade for the Greek Freak, it almost certainly means moving on from Rudy Gobert. Either he’s in the deal, or he’s somewhere else immediately after. You simply can’t roll out a Gobert–Giannis frontcourt in a playoff series unless your goal is to win games 88–84 and give everyone watching a heart condition. The spacing just isn’t survivable.
If I’m the Bucks I’m telling the Wolves I want: #1 Jaden McDaniels, #2 Joan Beringer, #3 Naz Reid, #4 Terrance Shannon. Since Giannis only has one year left on his contract he could control his destination a little bit by saying he will only re-sign with Team X. He apparently has a good relationship with Ant, and he’s got to like what he saw from the Wolves’ grittiness in the Denver series. Say it Giannis: “I want to go to Minnesota and that is the only team I will re-sign with.” You immediately get a statue in the middle of the Mall of America rotunda and fans line up to put Giannis tattoos next to their Naz ink.
You can’t have Giannis and Rudy, so here’s my trade proposal:
Three Team Trade
Timberwolves Receive:
- Giannis Antetokounmpo
- Myles Turner
Bucks Receive:
- Derrick White
- Jaden McDaniels
- Joan Beringer
- Julius Randle
- #28 Pick from Timberwolves
- #27 Pick from Celtics
- Future Pick Swap from Timberwolves and Celtics
Celtics Receive:
- Rudy Gobert
The One-Year Reset
Instead of risking another desperate trade in pursuit of a championship, the Wolves could spend the next year restructuring the roster around Anthony Edwards’ timeline while positioning themselves to make a major move next offseason.
Re-sign Dosunmu to a four-year contract ($15–20 million per season) and re-sign Donte DiVincenzo to a team-friendly extension while he recovers from his Achilles injury. Then find a trading partner for Gobert that brings back a young role player and draft picks while unloading Randle for an expiring contract and second-round picks. They’d likely struggle defensively but still be good enough to compete for a playoff spot while playing a faster, more open offensive style without Gobert clogging the lane.
If they clear those two contracts off the books, Minnesota could enter next offseason with a young core on good contracts:
- Edwards
- McDaniels
- Reid
- DiVincenzo
- Dosunmu
- Beringer
- Shannon
- Rookie Drafted in 2026
- Role Player from Gobert Trade
The Wolves would also have replenished draft capital and roughly $15 million in cap space. Those two factors, combined with a young core on team-friendly deals, would give Minnesota flexibility to pursue an All-Star caliber free agent or trade target.
Finding Value in the Margins
A straight-up swap of Julius Randle for Myles Turner makes some sense for both sides. If Milwaukee is moving on from Giannis, they’re probably not eager for three more years of Turner. Meanwhile, Randle has one fewer year on his deal and could carry more of an offensive burden for the Bucks who would be in rebuilding mode. Turner is a good three-point shooter and rim protector.
Beyond that, everything gets a lot more complicated. Any upgrade from Randle into a true high-end impact player is going to require Minnesota attaching real assets. And that’s where the reality of this roster shows up again. If the Wolves want to turn Randle into a player like Ja Morant, Kawhi Leonard, Zion Williamson, Dejounte Murray, Jrue Holiday, or Jalen Suggs, they’ll have to pay an additional tax in young players, picks, or both just to get a conversation started. At that point, it stops being “can we upgrade?” and becomes “how much future are we willing to mortgage to change the present?”
One small advantage Minnesota does have is an approximately $11 million trade exception, which could give them additional flexibility in constructing deals. For example, it could help facilitate a larger trade framework involving a player like Morant, who is set to make roughly $42 million next season compared to Randle’s $33 million.
The backdrop to all of this is Anthony Edwards. With only three years left on his contract, Minnesota is operating with urgency, trying to build a roster that can win now and still feel sustainable enough that he commits long-term. Because the worst-case scenario isn’t just another second-round exit, it’s eventually watching another franchise star decide the path to winning might not run through Minnesota.